Helen is Marketing Team Lead at Motion Trade with 4+ years in Web3 and crypto marketing. Before joining Motion Trade, she built and led the marketing function at CLS Global and managed social media campaigns for a portfolio of crypto clients at Ninja Promo. She specializes in turning complex trading products into clear stories.
A token unlock is a scheduled release of previously locked supply to team members, investors, ecosystem funds or the community. Preparing for one is a liquidity problem as much as a communications problem. Keyrock's study of more than 16,000 unlock events found that 90 percent of unlocks created negative price pressure, that declines often began around 30 days before the event, and that prices typically stabilised within about 14 days afterwards. Team unlocks did the most damage, at around minus 25 percent, while investor unlocks were steadier because investors tended to sell through OTC deals and time-weighted execution. A project can reduce the impact by estimating in dollars how much supply is likely to reach the market, building order book depth before the date, routing large blocks to OTC buyers, executing any treasury sales gradually, and telling holders exactly what is coming.
Unlocks are one of the few price events a project can see months in advance. The date, the amount and the recipients are all in the vesting schedule. Yet many teams treat an unlock as something that happens to the token rather than something to manage. This playbook sets out what the research shows, how to estimate the selling an unlock is likely to bring, and a 90-day timeline for preparing the order book.
What the data says about unlocks
The most detailed public study comes from Keyrock, a market maker that analysed more than 16,000 unlock events across 40 tokens. Its main findings:
- Most unlocks push the price down. Around 90 percent created negative price pressure, regardless of size or type, with more than 600 million dollars of tokens released each week.
- The pressure starts early. Prices often began to fall about 30 days before the event, as traders positioned ahead of the new supply.
- It usually fades within two weeks. After large unlocks, prices and volatility typically settled within about 14 days.
- Size matters, but not linearly. Bigger unlocks produced sharper drops, yet the very largest, above 10 percent of supply, did no worse than those between 5 and 10 percent.
- The recipient matters most. Team unlocks had the largest impact, around minus 25 percent. Investor unlocks declined slowly and modestly, because investors commonly used OTC sales, TWAP or VWAP execution and hedging. Ecosystem unlocks were the only category with a positive average effect.
Individual events can be very large. In July 2026, Tokenomist recorded a single cliff unlock worth 690 million dollars for HYPE, and a PUMP cliff that released close to a quarter of its circulating supply. For smaller tokens, an unlock of a few million dollars can be just as significant relative to the depth in their order books.
Step one: estimate the sell flow in dollars
The useful question is not "how many tokens unlock" but "how much will reach the order book, and how fast". Break the unlock down by recipient and estimate each group's behaviour:
- Team and advisers. Individuals with personal financial needs, who often sell independently and without coordination. This is the group most likely to move the price.
- Early investors. Funds with return targets and, often, existing relationships with OTC desks. Their selling tends to be larger but more orderly.
- Ecosystem and treasury. Controlled by the project, so the timing and method of any selling is a decision the team makes.
- Community and airdrop recipients. A mix of long-term holders and farmers who sell quickly.
Multiply each group's unlocked amount by a realistic selling share and the current price, then compare the result with the depth on your venues at ±2 percent of the mid price. If the expected selling over the first few days is many times the depth available, the price will move unless something changes before the date. The same sizing logic for launches is in how much liquidity a token needs at TGE.
Step two: decide what goes through the book and what does not
Not every token that unlocks needs to pass through the public order book. Large blocks from investors or the treasury can be placed with buyers directly through an OTC desk, at an agreed price, without touching the visible market. What remains should be executed gradually, through time-weighted or volume-weighted orders spread across days and venues, rather than as market orders on one exchange. We explain these methods in how token projects sell treasury tokens without crashing the price.
The project cannot control what every recipient does, but it can talk to the larger ones. Investors and team members who know that an OTC route exists, and that the market maker is preparing for the event, are less likely to dump tokens on the first morning.
Step three: prepare the order book
The market maker's job around an unlock is to make sure there is enough depth on both sides for the expected flow, that spreads stay tight while that flow arrives, and that prices stay aligned across every venue where the token trades. That means agreeing in advance:
- Higher depth targets for the unlock window, starting before the date, since the Keyrock data shows pressure building a month ahead.
- Additional inventory in the quote currency, so the desk can keep buying into selling without running out.
- A volatility policy, stating how far spreads may widen, for how long, and how quickly they return to normal.
- Round-the-clock coverage for the unlock day and the days that follow, including weekends.
None of this props up the price artificially. It ensures that sellers meet a functioning market with real bids rather than an empty book where each sale pushes the price further down.
A 90-day unlock timeline
| When | What to do | Who owns it |
|---|---|---|
| 90 days before | Map every recipient in the unlock, estimate how much each group is likely to sell, and convert the result into dollars against current depth | Project team with the market maker |
| 60 days before | Agree depth and spread targets for the unlock window, size the extra inventory, and line up OTC buyers for large blocks | Market maker, treasury, OTC desk |
| 30 days before | Publish a clear unlock note, confirm recipients' selling plans where possible, and start building depth on every venue | Communications, market maker |
| Unlock week | Keep quotes tight around the clock, execute any planned sales through OTC or time-weighted orders, and keep prices aligned across venues | Market maker, OTC desk |
| 14 days after | Review the book against targets, return to normal depth gradually, and report to the team and investors | Market maker, project team |
Communication matters as much as liquidity
Holders who are surprised by an unlock sell first and ask questions later. A short, factual note published weeks ahead, explaining how many tokens unlock, to whom, under what vesting terms and what the team intends to do with its own allocation, removes much of the uncertainty that drives early selling. It should avoid any promise about price. If part of the unlock is going to an ecosystem fund with a clear spending plan, say so, because the research suggests the market treats that differently from team or investor supply.
Design choices that make future unlocks easier
The easiest unlock to manage is one designed well from the start. Linear vesting after a short cliff spreads supply over time, while large single cliffs concentrate it. Staggering the schedules of different recipient groups avoids several large releases landing in the same week. Our guide to tokenomics design covers these choices, and why most new tokens trade below their TGE price shows what happens when unlocks outpace demand.
At Motion Trade, unlock dates sit on the shared calendar for every client from the first week of the engagement, so depth, inventory and any OTC placements are planned months ahead rather than in the final days.
FAQ
Do token unlocks always cause price drops?
Not always, but usually. Keyrock's analysis of over 16,000 unlocks found that about 90 percent created negative price pressure. Ecosystem unlocks with clear spending plans were the exception, with a slightly positive average effect.
When does the price impact of an unlock begin?
Often before the unlock itself. Keyrock found that prices tended to start falling around 30 days before the event, with the effect typically fading within about 14 days afterwards.
Which unlocks have the biggest price impact?
Team unlocks, which averaged around minus 25 percent in Keyrock's study, because team members often sell individually and without hedging. Investor unlocks were steadier, largely because investors used OTC sales and time-weighted execution.
How can a project reduce the impact of a token unlock?
By estimating the likely selling in dollars, routing large blocks through OTC, executing any treasury sales gradually, increasing order book depth before the date with its market maker, and communicating the details to holders well in advance.
What is the difference between a cliff unlock and linear vesting?
A cliff unlock releases a large amount of supply on a single date. Linear vesting releases tokens gradually, often daily or monthly, over a longer period. Linear schedules spread selling over time, while cliffs concentrate it and need more preparation.
Can a market maker stop the price from falling during an unlock?
No, and no legitimate desk should promise that. A market maker keeps a functioning order book with tight spreads and enough depth for the expected flow, which reduces disorderly moves. Whether the price holds depends on demand for the token.
